OST vs GDA
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, August 13, 2023 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Tobiasz Musielak2 3 3 210+1
- 10Francis Gusts1 1 1 u3+1
- 11Grzegorz Walasek3 2 1 2 19+2
- 12Matias Nielsen0 1 2 14+2
- 13Oliver Berntzon2 1 2 W5+2
- 14Jakub Krawczyk3 2 3 2 010
- 15Sebastian Szostak2 2 1 3 210+2
- 1Daniel Kaczmarek1 3 0 0 04
- 2Keynan Rew1 0 2 3 39
- 3Michael Jepsen Jensen0 0 3 14+1
- 5Nicolai Klindt3 2 1 3 u9
- 6Seweryn Orgacki1 0 01
- 7Miłosz Wysocki0 0 0 11
- 8Mads Hansen3 3 0 3 211
Heat by heat
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2*
- Daniel Kaczmarek · GDA1
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GDA0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2*
- Seweryn Orgacki · GDA1
- Miłosz Wysocki · GDA0
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Keynan Rew · GDA1
- Matias Nielsen · OST0
- Mads Hansen · GDA3
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST2
- Francis Gusts · OST1*
- Seweryn Orgacki · GDA0
- Mads Hansen · GDA3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Matias Nielsen · OST1*
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GDA0
- Daniel Kaczmarek · GDA3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1*
- Keynan Rew · GDA0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA2
- Francis Gusts · OST1
- Miłosz Wysocki · GDA0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2*
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA1
- Mads Hansen · GDA0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Keynan Rew · GDA2
- Francis Gusts · OST1
- Daniel Kaczmarek · GDA0
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1*
- Seweryn Orgacki · GDA0
- Mads Hansen · GDA3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2
- Matias Nielsen · OST1*
- Daniel Kaczmarek · GDA0
- Keynan Rew · GDA3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1*
- Miłosz Wysocki · GDA0
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GDA3
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST2
- Miłosz Wysocki · GDA1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Mads Hansen · GDA2
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GDA1*
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Keynan Rew · GDA3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1*
- Daniel Kaczmarek · GDA0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 27 → 28 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 12 km/h W
- gusts up to 24 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.4 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 50 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| OST | GDA | OST | GDA | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +8 | 96 % |
| 3 | +6 | 90 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +12 | 98 % |
| 9 | +14 | 100 % |
| 10 | +14 | 99 % |
| 11 | +14 | 100 % |
| 12 | +14 | 100 % |
| 13 | +12 | 100 % |
| 14 | +12 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Szostak | 5 | 5.1 | 10 | +4.9 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 5 | 7.6 | 10 | +2.4 |
| Keynan Rew | 5 | 6.8 | 9 | +2.2 |
| Nicolai Klindt | 4 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| Mads Hansen | 5 | 10.4 | 11 | +0.6 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 4 | 9.7 | 10 | +0.3 |
| Seweryn Orgacki | 3 | 1.3 | 1 | -0.3 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 5 | 9.4 | 9 | -0.4 |
| Francis Gusts | 3 | 4.0 | 3 | -1.0 |
| Michael Jepsen Jensen | 4 | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 4 | 6.6 | 5 | -1.6 |
| Matias Nielsen | 4 | 5.7 | 4 | -1.7 |
| Miłosz Wysocki | 4 | 3.6 | 1 | -2.6 |
| Daniel Kaczmarek | 5 | 7.2 | 4 | -3.2 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.