OST vs LAN
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, July 8, 2023 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Tobiasz Musielak2 2 2 39+1
- 10Victor Palovaara00
- 11Grzegorz Walasek3 2 2 3 313+2
- 12Matias Nielsen1 3 3 2 110+1
- 13Oliver Berntzon3 1 2 28+2
- 14Jakub Krawczyk3 2 3 1 312+1
- 15Sebastian Szostak2 2 2 06+2
- 16Francis Gusts1 12+1
- 1Kai Huckenbeck0 3 3 D6
- 2Martin Smolinski0 0 1 01
- 3Jonas Jeppesen1 1 1 3 1 07+1
- 4Lukas Baumann0 0 00
- 5Dimitri Berge2 3 1 1 0 29
- 6Norick Blödorn1 3 0 1 27
- 7Mario Hausl0 U0
Heat by heat
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2*
- Jonas Jeppesen · LAN1
- Kai Huckenbeck · LAN0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2*
- Norick Blödorn · LAN1
- Mario Hausl · LAN0
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Dimitri Berge · LAN2
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Martin Smolinski · LAN0
- Norick Blödorn · LAN3
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST2
- Francis Gusts · OST1*
- Lukas Baumann · LAN0
- Matias Nielsen · OST3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2*
- Jonas Jeppesen · LAN1
- Lukas Baumann · LAN0
- Kai Huckenbeck · LAN3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1*
- Martin Smolinski · LAN0
- Dimitri Berge · LAN3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2
- Francis Gusts · OST1
- Mario Hausl · LANU
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2*
- Jonas Jeppesen · LAN1
- Lukas Baumann · LAN0
- Kai Huckenbeck · LAN3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2
- Martin Smolinski · LAN1
- Victor Palovaara · OST0
- Matias Nielsen · OST3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2*
- Dimitri Berge · LAN1
- Norick Blödorn · LAN0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2*
- Dimitri Berge · LAN1
- Kai Huckenbeck · LAND
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2*
- Norick Blödorn · LAN1
- Martin Smolinski · LAN0
- Jonas Jeppesen · LAN3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1*
- Dimitri Berge · LAN0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Norick Blödorn · LAN2
- Jonas Jeppesen · LAN1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Dimitri Berge · LAN2
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Jonas Jeppesen · LAN0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Clear
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 30 → 29 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 8 km/h W
- gusts up to 20 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 22 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 17 | 7 | +10 | −10 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 11–13 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| OST | LAN | OST | LAN | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +8 | 96 % |
| 3 | +10 | 98 % |
| 4 | +10 | 98 % |
| 5 | +14 | 100 % |
| 6 | +14 | 99 % |
| 7 | +14 | 100 % |
| 8 | +18 | 100 % |
| 9 | +16 | 100 % |
| 10 | +20 | 100 % |
| 11 | +24 | 100 % |
| 12 | +28 | 100 % |
| 13 | +28 | 100 % |
| 14 | +28 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grzegorz Walasek | 5 | 7.6 | 13 | +5.4 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 5 | 7.5 | 12 | +4.5 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 4 | 3.0 | 6 | +3.0 |
| Matias Nielsen | 5 | 7.3 | 10 | +2.7 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 4 | 8.4 | 9 | +0.6 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 4 | 8.2 | 8 | -0.2 |
| Francis Gusts | 2 | 2.7 | 2 | -0.7 |
| Victor Palovaara | 1 | 0.9 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Kai Huckenbeck | 4 | 7.1 | 6 | -1.1 |
| Norick Blödorn | 5 | 8.3 | 7 | -1.3 |
| Jonas Jeppesen | 6 | 8.3 | 7 | -1.3 |
| Dimitri Berge | 6 | 11.0 | 9 | -2.0 |
| Mario Hausl | 2 | 2.1 | 0 | -2.1 |
| Lukas Baumann | 3 | 2.6 | 0 | -2.6 |
| Martin Smolinski | 4 | 4.9 | 1 | -3.9 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.