ZIE vs LAN
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, June 18, 2023 · Zielona Góra Speedway Stadium, Zielona Góra
Results
- 9Przemysław Pawlicki3 3 U 39
- 10Rasmus Jensen3 1 1 27+1
- 11Rohan Tungate2 2 2 39+3
- 12Luke Becker1 3 3 2 312+1
- 13Krzysztof Buczkowski3 2 2 310+1
- 14Maksym Borowiak1 0 12+1
- 15Michał Curzytek2 3 38
- 16Dawid Rempała2 2 15+1
- 1Kai Huckenbeck11
- 2Martin Smolinski0 1 3 1 16
- 3Marius Hillebrand0 0 U0
- 4Jonas Jeppesen1 1 3 0 0 27+1
- 5Dimitri Berge2 2 1 1 2 08
- 6Norick Blödorn3 2 1 W6
- 7Julian Bielmeier0 0 0 00
Heat by heat
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE2*
- Kai Huckenbeck · LAN1
- Marius Hillebrand · LAN0
- Norick Blödorn · LAN3
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE2
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE1*
- Julian Bielmeier · LAN0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE3
- Dimitri Berge · LAN2
- Luke Becker · ZIE1
- Martin Smolinski · LAN0
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE3
- Norick Blödorn · LAN2
- Jonas Jeppesen · LAN1*
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE0
- Luke Becker · ZIE3
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE2*
- Jonas Jeppesen · LAN1
- Marius Hillebrand · LAN0
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE2*
- Martin Smolinski · LAN1
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Dimitri Berge · LAN2
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE1
- Julian Bielmeier · LAN0
- Jonas Jeppesen · LAN3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE2
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE1
- Marius Hillebrand · LANU
- Martin Smolinski · LAN3
- Dawid Rempała · ZIE2
- Norick Blödorn · LAN1
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIEU
- Luke Becker · ZIE3
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE2*
- Dimitri Berge · LAN1
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Luke Becker · ZIE2*
- Dimitri Berge · LAN1
- Jonas Jeppesen · LAN0
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE3
- Dawid Rempała · ZIE2*
- Martin Smolinski · LAN1
- Julian Bielmeier · LAN0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE3
- Dimitri Berge · LAN2
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE1
- Jonas Jeppesen · LAN0
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE3
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE2*
- Martin Smolinski · LAN1
- Julian Bielmeier · LAN0
- Luke Becker · ZIE3
- Jonas Jeppesen · LAN2
- Dawid Rempała · ZIE1
- Dimitri Berge · LAN0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 24 °C
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
- Wind
- 7 km/h W
- gusts up to 19 km/h
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 3.4 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 40 %
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 14 | 4 | +10 | −10 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 14 | 4 | +10 | −10 | |
| 14–15 | 9 | 3 | +6 | −6 | |
| ZIE | LAN | ZIE | LAN | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead ZIE
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +6 | 90 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +10 | 96 % |
| 6 | +14 | 99 % |
| 7 | +16 | 100 % |
| 8 | +16 | 100 % |
| 9 | +14 | 100 % |
| 10 | +18 | 100 % |
| 11 | +22 | 100 % |
| 12 | +26 | 100 % |
| 13 | +28 | 100 % |
| 14 | +32 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michał Curzytek | 3 | 3.2 | 8 | +4.8 |
| Luke Becker | 5 | 8.1 | 12 | +3.9 |
| Dawid Rempała | 3 | 1.6 | 5 | +3.4 |
| Rohan Tungate | 4 | 7.3 | 9 | +1.7 |
| Krzysztof Buczkowski | 4 | 8.8 | 10 | +1.2 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 6.1 | 6 | -0.1 |
| Maksym Borowiak | 3 | 2.5 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 4 | 9.6 | 9 | -0.6 |
| Jonas Jeppesen | 6 | 7.8 | 7 | -0.8 |
| Martin Smolinski | 5 | 7.0 | 6 | -1.0 |
| Rasmus Jensen | 4 | 8.3 | 7 | -1.3 |
| Dimitri Berge | 6 | 9.4 | 8 | -1.4 |
| Marius Hillebrand | 3 | 2.3 | 0 | -2.3 |
| Kai Huckenbeck | 2 | 3.6 | 1 | -2.6 |
| Julian Bielmeier | 4 | 4.3 | 0 | -4.3 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.