POZ vs LAN
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, April 9, 2023 · Stadion Golęcin, Poznań
Results
- 9Adrian Cyfer1 1 3 05+1
- 10Oleksandr Loktayev3 2 1 1 29
- 11Antonio Lindbäck3 2 2 3 111+2
- 12Kevin Fajfer1 3 0 2 06
- 13Jonas Seifert-Salk3 3 2 3 213
- 14Karol Żupiński2 2 04+1
- 15Kacper TeskaD 0 00
- 1Kai Huckenbeck2 2 2 3 3 012
- 2Martin Smolinski0 1 01+1
- 3Kim Nilsson0 D 3 2 0 16
- 4Lukas Baumann1 12
- 5Dimitri Berge2 3 1 3 2 314
- 6Erik Bachhuber1 01
- 7Norick Blödorn3 0 1 1 16+1
Heat by heat
- Antonio Lindbäck · POZ3
- Kai Huckenbeck · LAN2
- Adrian Cyfer · POZ1
- Kim Nilsson · LAN0
- Norick Blödorn · LAN3
- Karol Żupiński · POZ2
- Erik Bachhuber · LAN1
- Kacper Teska · POZD
- Jonas Seifert-Salk · POZ3
- Dimitri Berge · LAN2
- Kevin Fajfer · POZ1
- Martin Smolinski · LAN0
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ3
- Karol Żupiński · POZ2*
- Lukas Baumann · LAN1
- Erik Bachhuber · LAN0
- Kevin Fajfer · POZ3
- Antonio Lindbäck · POZ2*
- Lukas Baumann · LAN1
- Kim Nilsson · LAND
- Jonas Seifert-Salk · POZ3
- Kai Huckenbeck · LAN2
- Martin Smolinski · LAN1*
- Kacper Teska · POZ0
- Dimitri Berge · LAN3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ2
- Adrian Cyfer · POZ1*
- Norick Blödorn · LAN0
- Kim Nilsson · LAN3
- Jonas Seifert-Salk · POZ2
- Dimitri Berge · LAN1
- Karol Żupiński · POZ0
- Adrian Cyfer · POZ3
- Kai Huckenbeck · LAN2
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ1
- Martin Smolinski · LAN0
- Dimitri Berge · LAN3
- Antonio Lindbäck · POZ2
- Norick Blödorn · LAN1
- Kevin Fajfer · POZ0
- Kai Huckenbeck · LAN3
- Kevin Fajfer · POZ2
- Norick Blödorn · LAN1
- Adrian Cyfer · POZ0
- Antonio Lindbäck · POZ3
- Kim Nilsson · LAN2
- Norick Blödorn · LAN1*
- Kacper Teska · POZ0
- Jonas Seifert-Salk · POZ3
- Dimitri Berge · LAN2
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ1
- Kim Nilsson · LAN0
- Kai Huckenbeck · LAN3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ2
- Kim Nilsson · LAN1
- Kevin Fajfer · POZ0
- Dimitri Berge · LAN3
- Jonas Seifert-Salk · POZ2
- Antonio Lindbäck · POZ1*
- Kai Huckenbeck · LAN0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 10 → 11 °C
- Measured · Poznan, 4 km away
- Wind
- 16 km/h NW
- gusts up to 22 km/h
- Measured · Poznan, 4 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 77 %
- Measured · Poznan, 4 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| POZ | LAN | POZ | LAN | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead POZ
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +10 | 96 % |
| 6 | +10 | 97 % |
| 7 | +10 | 97 % |
| 8 | +8 | 94 % |
| 9 | +10 | 97 % |
| 10 | +8 | 95 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +6 | 92 % |
| 13 | +8 | 98 % |
| 14 | +6 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Seifert-Salk | 5 | 6.3 | 13 | +6.7 |
| Dimitri Berge | 6 | 11.0 | 14 | +3.0 |
| Karol Żupiński | 3 | 1.6 | 4 | +2.4 |
| Antonio Lindbäck | 5 | 8.8 | 11 | +2.2 |
| Kevin Fajfer | 5 | 4.8 | 6 | +1.2 |
| Adrian Cyfer | 4 | 4.0 | 5 | +1.0 |
| Norick Blödorn | 5 | 6.1 | 6 | -0.1 |
| Lukas Baumann | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oleksandr Loktayev | 5 | 10.0 | 9 | -1.0 |
| Kai Huckenbeck | 6 | 13.2 | 12 | -1.2 |
| Erik Bachhuber | 2 | 2.7 | 1 | -1.7 |
| Martin Smolinski | 3 | 4.0 | 1 | -3.0 |
| Kacper Teska | 3 | 3.6 | 0 | -3.6 |
| Kim Nilsson | 6 | 11.2 | 6 | -5.2 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.