GDA vs OST
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, April 8, 2023 · Stadion im. Zbigniewa Podleckiego, Gdańsk
Results
- 9Daniel Kaczmarek0 2 13
- 10Mads HansenW 3 0 2 38+1
- 11Nicolai Klindt3 2 2 1 210+2
- 12Norbert Kościuch00
- 13Michael Jepsen Jensen2 3 2 3 313
- 14Miłosz Wysocki3 W 03
- 15Seweryn Orgacki0 W W0
- 16Keynan Rew1 3 3 1 19
- 1Oliver Berntzon2 1 3 3 09
- 2Grzegorz Walasek3 2 2 3 111+1
- 3Jakub Krawczyk1 0 1 1 03+1
- 4Matias Nielsen2 1 3 2 210+1
- 5Tobiasz MusielakW0
- 6Sebastian Szostak1 u1+1
- 7Jakub Poczta2 3 U W 27+1
Heat by heat
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1*
- Daniel Kaczmarek · GDA0
- Miłosz Wysocki · GDA3
- Jakub Poczta · OST2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1*
- Seweryn Orgacki · GDA0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GDA2
- Keynan Rew · GDA1
- Jakub Poczta · OST3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2
- Keynan Rew · GDA3
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA2*
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GDA3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Mads Hansen · GDA3
- Daniel Kaczmarek · GDA2
- Jakub Poczta · OSTU
- Matias Nielsen · OST3
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GDA2
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1
- Miłosz Wysocki · GDA0
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2*
- Daniel Kaczmarek · GDA1
- Mads Hansen · GDA0
- Keynan Rew · GDA3
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2*
- Keynan Rew · GDA1
- Norbert Kościuch · GDA0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Jakub Poczta · OST2*
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA1
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GDA3
- Mads Hansen · GDA2*
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1
- Mads Hansen · GDA3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2
- Keynan Rew · GDA1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · GDA3
- Nicolai Klindt · GDA2*
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1
- Oliver Berntzon · OST0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 12 → 9 °C
- Measured · Gdansk-Rebiechowo, 14 km away
- Wind
- 14 km/h NE
- gusts up to 20 km/h
- Measured · Gdansk-Rebiechowo, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.4 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 75 %
- Measured · Gdansk-Rebiechowo, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 9 | 14 | −5 | +5 | |
| 5–7 | 13 | 4 | +9 | −9 | |
| 8–10 | 8 | 9 | −1 | +1 | |
| 11–13 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 14–15 | 9 | 3 | +6 | −6 | |
| GDA | OST | GDA | OST | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GDA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | 0 | 64 % |
| 4 | -5 | 38 % |
| 5 | -1 | 64 % |
| 6 | -1 | 66 % |
| 7 | +4 | 82 % |
| 8 | +2 | 71 % |
| 9 | -2 | 44 % |
| 10 | +3 | 84 % |
| 11 | -1 | 48 % |
| 12 | -5 | 20 % |
| 13 | -1 | 56 % |
| 14 | +1 | 77 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grzegorz Walasek | 5 | 7.5 | 11 | +3.5 |
| Keynan Rew | 5 | 5.7 | 9 | +3.3 |
| Michael Jepsen Jensen | 5 | 9.7 | 13 | +3.3 |
| Jakub Poczta | 5 | 4.5 | 7 | +2.5 |
| Daniel Kaczmarek | 3 | 2.7 | 3 | +0.3 |
| Miłosz Wysocki | 3 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| Nicolai Klindt | 5 | 9.8 | 10 | +0.2 |
| Matias Nielsen | 5 | 10.1 | 10 | -0.1 |
| Norbert Kościuch | 1 | 0.9 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 5 | 4.0 | 3 | -1.0 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 5 | 10.5 | 9 | -1.5 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 2 | 2.8 | 1 | -1.8 |
| Mads Hansen | 5 | 10.1 | 8 | -2.1 |
| Seweryn Orgacki | 3 | 2.7 | 0 | -2.7 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 3 | 6.3 | 0 | -6.3 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.