KRO vs LAN
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, May 28, 2022 · Stadion Miejski w Krośnie, Krosno
Results
- 9Tobiasz Musielak2 2 2 3 110+2
- 10Mateusz Szczepaniak3 3 3 3 113+1
- 11Rafał Karczmarz0 1 0 01
- 12Vaclav Milik3 3 3 1 212
- 13Andzejs Lebedevs2 2 D 1 05+1
- 14Franciszek Karczewski2 0 13
- 15Krzysztof Sadurski0 1 23+1
- 1Kai Huckenbeck3 3 1 2 3 315
- 2Valentin Grobauer0 0 00
- 3Erik Riss1 0 2 03+1
- 4Mads Hansen2 2 3 0 3 010
- 5Dimitri Berge1 D 2 2 27+1
- 6Norick Blödorn3 1 1 16+2
- 7Erik Bachhuber1 12
Heat by heat
- Kai Huckenbeck · LAN3
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO2
- Erik Riss · LAN1
- Rafał Karczmarz · KRO0
- Norick Blödorn · LAN3
- Franciszek Karczewski · KRO2
- Erik Bachhuber · LAN1
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO0
- Vaclav Milik · KRO3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2*
- Dimitri Berge · LAN1
- Valentin Grobauer · LAN0
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO3
- Mads Hansen · LAN2
- Norick Blödorn · LAN1*
- Franciszek Karczewski · KRO0
- Vaclav Milik · KRO3
- Mads Hansen · LAN2
- Rafał Karczmarz · KRO1
- Erik Riss · LAN0
- Kai Huckenbeck · LAN3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO1*
- Valentin Grobauer · LAN0
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO3
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO2*
- Erik Bachhuber · LAN1
- Dimitri Berge · LAND
- Mads Hansen · LAN3
- Erik Riss · LAN2*
- Franciszek Karczewski · KRO1
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KROD
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO3
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO2*
- Kai Huckenbeck · LAN1
- Valentin Grobauer · LAN0
- Vaclav Milik · KRO3
- Dimitri Berge · LAN2
- Norick Blödorn · LAN1*
- Rafał Karczmarz · KRO0
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO3
- Kai Huckenbeck · LAN2
- Vaclav Milik · KRO1
- Mads Hansen · LAN0
- Kai Huckenbeck · LAN3
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO2
- Norick Blödorn · LAN1
- Rafał Karczmarz · KRO0
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO3
- Dimitri Berge · LAN2
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO1
- Erik Riss · LAN0
- Mads Hansen · LAN3
- Dimitri Berge · LAN2*
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO1
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO0
- Kai Huckenbeck · LAN3
- Vaclav Milik · KRO2
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO1*
- Mads Hansen · LAN0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 10 → 12 °C
- Measured · Krosno / Bia?obrzegi, 2 km away
- Wind
- 22 km/h NW
- gusts up to 26 km/h
- Measured · Krosno / Bia?obrzegi, 2 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 3.7 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 60 %
- Measured · Krosno / Bia?obrzegi, 2 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| KRO | LAN | KRO | LAN | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead KRO
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | -4 | 37 % |
| 3 | 0 | 64 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | +2 | 69 % |
| 6 | +2 | 74 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +2 | 71 % |
| 9 | +6 | 89 % |
| 10 | +6 | 92 % |
| 11 | +8 | 95 % |
| 12 | +6 | 92 % |
| 13 | +8 | 98 % |
| 14 | +4 | 94 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Szczepaniak | 5 | 7.9 | 13 | +5.1 |
| Kai Huckenbeck | 6 | 11.8 | 15 | +3.2 |
| Mads Hansen | 6 | 7.7 | 10 | +2.3 |
| Vaclav Milik | 5 | 10.0 | 12 | +2.0 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 |
| Krzysztof Sadurski | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Erik Bachhuber | 2 | 2.0 | 2 | -0.0 |
| Dimitri Berge | 5 | 7.3 | 7 | -0.3 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 10.3 | 10 | -0.3 |
| Erik Riss | 4 | 4.0 | 3 | -1.0 |
| Franciszek Karczewski | 3 | 4.0 | 3 | -1.0 |
| Valentin Grobauer | 3 | 2.1 | 0 | -2.1 |
| Rafał Karczmarz | 4 | 5.0 | 1 | -4.0 |
| Andzejs Lebedevs | 5 | 11.1 | 5 | -6.1 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.