GDA vs KRO
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, April 9, 2022 · Stadion im. Zbigniewa Podleckiego, Gdańsk
Results
- 9Rasmus JensenD 1 1 1 03+1
- 10Jakub Jamróg3 3 3 2 011
- 11Viktor Trofymov2 3 1 2 311
- 12Thomas Jorgensen1 T1
- 13Adrian GałaW 2 3 2 0 29
- 14Kamil Marciniec0 2 1 0 03+1
- 15Marcel Krzykowski1 01
- 16Piotr Gryszpiński00
- 1Tobiasz Musielak3 3 2 3 112+1
- 2Mateusz Szczepaniak2 1 W 3 17+1
- 3Vaclav Milik1 2 2 1 39
- 4Rafał Karczmarz0 00
- 5Andzejs Lebedevs3 2 2 3 212+1
- 6Franciszek Karczewski3 1 3 07
- 7Krzysztof Sadurski2 0 13+1
- 8Marko Levishyn11+1
Heat by heat
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO3
- Viktor Trofymov · GDA2
- Vaclav Milik · KRO1
- Rasmus Jensen · GDAD
- Franciszek Karczewski · KRO3
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO2*
- Marcel Krzykowski · GDA1
- Kamil Marciniec · GDA0
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO3
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO2*
- Thomas Jorgensen · GDA1
- Jakub Jamróg · GDA3
- Kamil Marciniec · GDA2*
- Franciszek Karczewski · KRO1
- Rafał Karczmarz · KRO0
- Viktor Trofymov · GDA3
- Vaclav Milik · KRO2
- Kamil Marciniec · GDA1
- Rafał Karczmarz · KRO0
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO3
- Adrian Gała · GDA2
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO1
- Marcel Krzykowski · GDA0
- Jakub Jamróg · GDA3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2
- Rasmus Jensen · GDA1
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO0
- Adrian Gała · GDA3
- Vaclav Milik · KRO2
- Marko Levishyn · KRO1*
- Kamil Marciniec · GDA0
- Jakub Jamróg · GDA3
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO2
- Rasmus Jensen · GDA1
- Franciszek Karczewski · KRO3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2*
- Viktor Trofymov · GDA1
- Piotr Gryszpiński · GDA0
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO3
- Adrian Gała · GDA2
- Rasmus Jensen · GDA1*
- Franciszek Karczewski · KRO0
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO3
- Viktor Trofymov · GDA2
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO1
- Kamil Marciniec · GDA0
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO3
- Jakub Jamróg · GDA2
- Vaclav Milik · KRO1
- Adrian Gała · GDA0
- Vaclav Milik · KRO3
- Adrian Gała · GDA2
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO1
- Rasmus Jensen · GDA0
- Viktor Trofymov · GDA3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO1*
- Jakub Jamróg · GDA0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 8 → 6 °C
- Measured · Gdansk-Rebiechowo, 14 km away
- Wind
- 36 km/h W
- gusts up to 57 km/h
- Measured · Gdansk-Rebiechowo, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 43 %
- Measured · Gdansk-Rebiechowo, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 9 | 15 | −6 | +6 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 11–13 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| GDA | KRO | GDA | KRO | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GDA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | -6 | 27 % |
| 3 | -10 | 7 % |
| 4 | -6 | 23 % |
| 5 | -4 | 34 % |
| 6 | -6 | 24 % |
| 7 | -4 | 32 % |
| 8 | -4 | 35 % |
| 9 | -2 | 44 % |
| 10 | -6 | 15 % |
| 11 | -6 | 12 % |
| 12 | -8 | 7 % |
| 13 | -10 | 1 % |
| 14 | -12 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Trofymov | 5 | 6.6 | 11 | +4.4 |
| Jakub Jamróg | 5 | 7.8 | 11 | +3.2 |
| Adrian Gała | 6 | 7.0 | 9 | +2.0 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 10.2 | 12 | +1.8 |
| Andzejs Lebedevs | 5 | 10.2 | 12 | +1.8 |
| Franciszek Karczewski | 4 | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 |
| Kamil Marciniec | 5 | 2.1 | 3 | +0.9 |
| Thomas Jorgensen | 1 | 0.9 | 1 | +0.1 |
| Krzysztof Sadurski | 3 | 3.0 | 3 | -0.0 |
| Marko Levishyn | 1 | 1.4 | 1 | -0.4 |
| Vaclav Milik | 5 | 9.6 | 9 | -0.6 |
| Piotr Gryszpiński | 1 | 0.7 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Marcel Krzykowski | 2 | 2.8 | 1 | -1.8 |
| Mateusz Szczepaniak | 5 | 9.0 | 7 | -2.0 |
| Rafał Karczmarz | 2 | 3.5 | 0 | -3.5 |
| Rasmus Jensen | 5 | 9.7 | 3 | -6.7 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.