TAR vs KRO
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, May 29, 2021 · Tarnów Stadium, Tarnów
Results
- 9Niels Kristian Iversen2 3 1 2 3 112+1
- 10Oskar Bober3 1 04
- 11Artur Mroczka0 1 1 24+2
- 12Ernest Koza1 2 2 0 27+2
- 13Rohan Tungate2 1 3 0 3 211
- 14Piotr Świercz2 1 03+1
- 15Przemysław Konieczny3 0 03
- 1Tobiasz Musielak3 3 3 1 313
- 2Mateusz Szczepaniak0 2 2 3 18+2
- 3Vaclav Milik1 3 2 2 08
- 4Patryk Wojdyło2 T 1 36+1
- 5Andzejs Lebedevs3 2 3 1 09+1
- 6Jakub Janik0 00
- 7Bartosz Curzytek1 0 0 12
- 8Aleks Rydlewski00
Heat by heat
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TAR2
- Vaclav Milik · KRO1
- Artur Mroczka · TAR0
- Przemysław Konieczny · TAR3
- Piotr Świercz · TAR2*
- Bartosz Curzytek · KRO1
- Jakub Janik · KRO0
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO3
- Rohan Tungate · TAR2
- Ernest Koza · TAR1*
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO0
- Oskar Bober · TAR3
- Patryk Wojdyło · KRO2
- Piotr Świercz · TAR1
- Aleks Rydlewski · KRO0
- Vaclav Milik · KRO3
- Ernest Koza · TAR2
- Artur Mroczka · TAR1*
- Bartosz Curzytek · KRO0
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO3
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO2*
- Rohan Tungate · TAR1
- Przemysław Konieczny · TAR0
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TAR3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2
- Oskar Bober · TAR1
- Bartosz Curzytek · KRO0
- Rohan Tungate · TAR3
- Vaclav Milik · KRO2
- Patryk Wojdyło · KRO1*
- Piotr Świercz · TAR0
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO3
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO2*
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TAR1
- Oskar Bober · TAR0
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO3
- Ernest Koza · TAR2
- Artur Mroczka · TAR1*
- Jakub Janik · KRO0
- Patryk Wojdyło · KRO3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TAR2
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO1
- Ernest Koza · TAR0
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO3
- Artur Mroczka · TAR2
- Bartosz Curzytek · KRO1
- Przemysław Konieczny · TAR0
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TAR3
- Vaclav Milik · KRO2
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO1*
- Rohan Tungate · TAR0
- Rohan Tungate · TAR3
- Ernest Koza · TAR2*
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO1
- Vaclav Milik · KRO0
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO3
- Rohan Tungate · TAR2
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TAR1*
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Showers
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 14 °C
- Measured · Tarnow, 5 km away
- Wind
- 5 km/h N
- gusts up to 19 km/h
- Measured · Tarnow, 5 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 1.3 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 4.7 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 63 %
- Measured · Tarnow, 5 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 11–13 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| TAR | KRO | TAR | KRO | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead TAR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +4 | 83 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | +2 | 71 % |
| 9 | -2 | 44 % |
| 10 | -2 | 36 % |
| 11 | -4 | 18 % |
| 12 | -6 | 6 % |
| 13 | -6 | 4 % |
| 14 | -2 | 23 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niels Kristian Iversen | 6 | 8.9 | 12 | +3.1 |
| Patryk Wojdyło | 3 | 3.7 | 6 | +2.3 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 10.9 | 13 | +2.1 |
| Vaclav Milik | 5 | 7.0 | 8 | +1.0 |
| Oskar Bober | 3 | 3.1 | 4 | +0.9 |
| Przemysław Konieczny | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | +0.7 |
| Ernest Koza | 5 | 6.4 | 7 | +0.6 |
| Rohan Tungate | 6 | 11.4 | 11 | -0.4 |
| Mateusz Szczepaniak | 5 | 8.6 | 8 | -0.6 |
| Andzejs Lebedevs | 5 | 10.0 | 9 | -1.0 |
| Piotr Świercz | 3 | 4.1 | 3 | -1.1 |
| Aleks Rydlewski | 1 | 1.3 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Artur Mroczka | 4 | 5.6 | 4 | -1.6 |
| Bartosz Curzytek | 4 | 4.2 | 2 | -2.2 |
| Jakub Janik | 2 | 2.5 | 0 | -2.5 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.