TAR vs OST
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, May 15, 2021 · Tarnów Stadium, Tarnów
Results
- 9Niels Kristian Iversen3 3 1 2 1 313
- 10Alexander Woentin1 0 12
- 11Artur MroczkaW 2 1 1 2 06+2
- 12Ernest Koza1 1 2 0 37+2
- 13Oskar Bober2 1 W 14
- 14Przemysław Konieczny0 00
- 15Dawid Rempała1 0 0 01
- 1Oliver Berntzon1 3 3 3 111+1
- 3Grzegorz Walasek2 3 3 3 213
- 4Tomasz Gapiński2 0 2 26+3
- 5Nicolai Klindt0 2 3 T5
- 6Sebastian Szostak3 3 0 2 210+1
- 7Jakub Krawczyk2 1 1 04+2
- 8Patrick Hansen3 2 0 38+1
Heat by heat
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TAR3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST2*
- Dawid Rempała · TAR1
- Przemysław Konieczny · TAR0
- Patrick Hansen · OST3
- Oskar Bober · TAR2
- Ernest Koza · TAR1*
- Nicolai Klindt · OST0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST2*
- Alexander Woentin · TAR1
- Przemysław Konieczny · TAR0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Artur Mroczka · TAR2
- Ernest Koza · TAR1*
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST0
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Patrick Hansen · OST2*
- Oskar Bober · TAR1
- Dawid Rempała · TAR0
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TAR3
- Nicolai Klindt · OST2
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1*
- Alexander Woentin · TAR0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST2*
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TAR1
- Dawid Rempała · TAR0
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TAR2
- Artur Mroczka · TAR1*
- Patrick Hansen · OST0
- Nicolai Klindt · OST3
- Ernest Koza · TAR2
- Artur Mroczka · TAR1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST2*
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TAR1
- Ernest Koza · TAR0
- Patrick Hansen · OST3
- Artur Mroczka · TAR2
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1
- Dawid Rempała · TAR0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2*
- Alexander Woentin · TAR1
- Ernest Koza · TAR3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2
- Oskar Bober · TAR1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Niels Kristian Iversen · TAR3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1*
- Artur Mroczka · TAR0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 20 → 19 °C
- Measured · Tarnow, 5 km away
- Wind
- 7 km/h SE
- gusts up to 19 km/h
- Measured · Tarnow, 5 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1.3 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 47 %
- Measured · Tarnow, 5 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 8 | 16 | −8 | +8 | |
| 5–7 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 8–10 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 11–13 | 4 | 14 | −10 | +10 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| TAR | OST | TAR | OST | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead TAR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | -4 | 37 % |
| 3 | -4 | 34 % |
| 4 | -8 | 15 % |
| 5 | -8 | 18 % |
| 6 | -12 | 7 % |
| 7 | -12 | 4 % |
| 8 | -16 | 1 % |
| 9 | -16 | 1 % |
| 10 | -16 | 2 % |
| 11 | -20 | 1 % |
| 12 | -22 | 0 % |
| 13 | -26 | 0 % |
| 14 | -24 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Szostak | 5 | 5.1 | 10 | +4.9 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 5 | 8.3 | 13 | +4.7 |
| Patrick Hansen | 4 | 5.5 | 8 | +2.5 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 5 | 9.0 | 11 | +2.0 |
| Niels Kristian Iversen | 6 | 11.2 | 13 | +1.8 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 4 | 4.6 | 4 | -0.6 |
| Ernest Koza | 5 | 7.7 | 7 | -0.7 |
| Oskar Bober | 4 | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 |
| Tomasz Gapiński | 4 | 7.6 | 6 | -1.6 |
| Alexander Woentin | 3 | 3.8 | 2 | -1.8 |
| Nicolai Klindt | 3 | 6.9 | 5 | -1.9 |
| Dawid Rempała | 4 | 3.4 | 1 | -2.4 |
| Przemysław Konieczny | 2 | 2.6 | 0 | -2.6 |
| Artur Mroczka | 6 | 8.9 | 6 | -2.9 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.