OST vs KRO
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, April 24, 2021 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Nicolai Klindt3 1 2 1 07+1
- 10Tomasz Gapiński2 3 0 1 28
- 11Grzegorz Walasek1 3 1 2 18+1
- 13Oliver Berntzon3 W 2 05
- 14Jakub Krawczyk3 U D3
- 15Sebastian Szostak2 1 14+2
- 16Patrick Hansen2 2 2 2 19+3
- 1Vaclav Milik0 3 3 0 06
- 2Mateusz SzczepaniakW 2 1 3 39+1
- 3Tobiasz Musielak2 1 3 3 2 213+2
- 4Patryk Wojdyło3 0 14
- 5Andzejs Lebedevs1 2 3 3 312
- 6Aleks RydlewskiW0
- 7Bartosz Curzytek1 0 01
- 8Jakub Janik1 01
Heat by heat
- Nicolai Klindt · OST3
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1
- Vaclav Milik · KRO0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2*
- Bartosz Curzytek · KRO1
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Patrick Hansen · OST2*
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO1
- Patryk Wojdyło · KRO3
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST2
- Jakub Janik · KRO1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OSTU
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Patrick Hansen · OST2*
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO1
- Patryk Wojdyło · KRO0
- Vaclav Milik · KRO3
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO2*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2
- Nicolai Klindt · OST1
- Bartosz Curzytek · KRO0
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Patryk Wojdyło · KRO1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OSTD
- Vaclav Milik · KRO3
- Nicolai Klindt · OST2
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO1
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST0
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO3
- Patrick Hansen · OST2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1*
- Jakub Janik · KRO0
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO3
- Patrick Hansen · OST2
- Nicolai Klindt · OST1*
- Vaclav Milik · KRO0
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1*
- Bartosz Curzytek · KRO0
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO3
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO2*
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST1
- Oliver Berntzon · OST0
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO3
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST2
- Patrick Hansen · OST1*
- Vaclav Milik · KRO0
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO3
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO2*
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1
- Nicolai Klindt · OST0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 10 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 18 km/h NW
- gusts up to 30 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.3 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 51 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 16 | 8 | +8 | −8 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 11–13 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| OST | KRO | OST | KRO | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +6 | 89 % |
| 3 | +10 | 98 % |
| 4 | +8 | 93 % |
| 5 | +12 | 97 % |
| 6 | +8 | 95 % |
| 7 | +10 | 97 % |
| 8 | +8 | 94 % |
| 9 | +6 | 89 % |
| 10 | +6 | 92 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +6 | 92 % |
| 13 | +2 | 74 % |
| 14 | +2 | 77 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Hansen | 5 | 4.4 | 9 | +4.6 |
| Andzejs Lebedevs | 5 | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
| Patryk Wojdyło | 3 | 2.0 | 4 | +2.0 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 3 | 2.2 | 4 | +1.8 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 6 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| Mateusz Szczepaniak | 5 | 7.8 | 9 | +1.2 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 5 | 8.0 | 8 | +0.0 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 3 | 3.3 | 3 | -0.3 |
| Vaclav Milik | 5 | 6.9 | 6 | -0.9 |
| Tomasz Gapiński | 5 | 9.2 | 8 | -1.2 |
| Aleks Rydlewski | 1 | 1.7 | 0 | -1.7 |
| Jakub Janik | 2 | 2.7 | 1 | -1.7 |
| Nicolai Klindt | 5 | 9.4 | 7 | -2.4 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 4 | 7.6 | 5 | -2.6 |
| Bartosz Curzytek | 3 | 3.8 | 1 | -2.8 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.