OST vs TAR
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, August 8, 2020 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Grzegorz Walasek3 2 2 3 111+1
- 10Tomasz Gapiński3 D 1 2 39+2
- 11Adrian Cyfer2 1 2 1 28+3
- 12Rafał Okoniewski2 2 1 16+2
- 13Nicolai Klindt3 2 3 3 213
- 14Sebastian Szostak3 0 03
- 15Kacper Grzelak0 0 00
- 1Kim Nilsson1 3 3 0 07
- 2Michał Gruchalski0 1 01
- 3Artur Mroczka0 3 14+1
- 4Ernest Koza2 0 2 2 1 07
- 5Peter Ljung1 3 3 2 1 313+1
- 6Przemysław Konieczny1 01+1
- 7Mateusz Cierniak2 1 1 3 07+1
Heat by heat
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Adrian Cyfer · OST2*
- Kim Nilsson · TAR1
- Artur Mroczka · TAR0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Mateusz Cierniak · TAR2
- Przemysław Konieczny · TAR1*
- Kacper Grzelak · OST0
- Nicolai Klindt · OST3
- Rafał Okoniewski · OST2*
- Peter Ljung · TAR1
- Michał Gruchalski · TAR0
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST3
- Ernest Koza · TAR2
- Mateusz Cierniak · TAR1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Artur Mroczka · TAR3
- Rafał Okoniewski · OST2
- Adrian Cyfer · OST1*
- Ernest Koza · TAR0
- Kim Nilsson · TAR3
- Nicolai Klindt · OST2
- Michał Gruchalski · TAR1
- Kacper Grzelak · OST0
- Peter Ljung · TAR3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Mateusz Cierniak · TAR1
- Tomasz Gapiński · OSTD
- Nicolai Klindt · OST3
- Ernest Koza · TAR2
- Artur Mroczka · TAR1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Kim Nilsson · TAR3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST1*
- Michał Gruchalski · TAR0
- Peter Ljung · TAR3
- Adrian Cyfer · OST2
- Rafał Okoniewski · OST1*
- Przemysław Konieczny · TAR0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Ernest Koza · TAR2
- Rafał Okoniewski · OST1
- Kim Nilsson · TAR0
- Mateusz Cierniak · TAR3
- Peter Ljung · TAR2*
- Adrian Cyfer · OST1
- Kacper Grzelak · OST0
- Nicolai Klindt · OST3
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST2*
- Peter Ljung · TAR1
- Mateusz Cierniak · TAR0
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST3
- Adrian Cyfer · OST2*
- Ernest Koza · TAR1
- Kim Nilsson · TAR0
- Peter Ljung · TAR3
- Nicolai Klindt · OST2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1*
- Ernest Koza · TAR0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 30 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 14 km/h NE
- gusts up to 24 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 1.6 mm
- Possible showers: a second model has the day dry
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 46 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 16 | 8 | +8 | −8 | |
| 5–7 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| OST | TAR | OST | TAR | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +8 | 94 % |
| 4 | +8 | 93 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +4 | 82 % |
| 8 | +4 | 83 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +2 | 73 % |
| 13 | +6 | 96 % |
| 14 | +10 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolai Klindt | 5 | 8.9 | 13 | +4.1 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 5 | 8.5 | 11 | +2.5 |
| Peter Ljung | 6 | 11.6 | 13 | +1.4 |
| Tomasz Gapiński | 5 | 7.8 | 9 | +1.2 |
| Adrian Cyfer | 5 | 6.8 | 8 | +1.2 |
| Rafał Okoniewski | 4 | 5.8 | 6 | +0.2 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 3 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| Artur Mroczka | 3 | 4.0 | 4 | -0.0 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 5 | 7.2 | 7 | -0.2 |
| Przemysław Konieczny | 2 | 1.7 | 1 | -0.7 |
| Kim Nilsson | 5 | 8.0 | 7 | -1.0 |
| Ernest Koza | 6 | 9.6 | 7 | -2.6 |
| Kacper Grzelak | 3 | 2.8 | 0 | -2.8 |
| Michał Gruchalski | 3 | 4.5 | 1 | -3.5 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.