TAR vs DAU
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Thursday, August 6, 2020 · Tarnów Stadium, Tarnów
Results
- 9Kim Nilsson2 3 2 1 210+2
- 10Ernest Koza3 1 3 3 212
- 11Michał Gruchalski3 1 3 3 111
- 12Artur Mroczka1 3 0 04
- 13Peter Ljung3 1 2 1 18+1
- 14Przemysław Konieczny1 0 01+1
- 15Mateusz Cierniak2 0 13
- 1Pontus Aspgren1 3 1 3 08
- 2Jevgenijs Kostigovs0 2 0 02+1
- 3Daniils Kolodinskis0 00
- 4Vadim Tarasenko2 2 3 2 3 D12+1
- 5Andrey Kudryashov2 2 2 2 0 311
- 6Francis Gusts3 1 1 16+2
- 7Olegs Mihailovs0 0 22
Heat by heat
- Michał Gruchalski · TAR3
- Kim Nilsson · TAR2*
- Pontus Aspgren · DAU1
- Daniils Kolodinskis · DAU0
- Francis Gusts · DAU3
- Mateusz Cierniak · TAR2
- Przemysław Konieczny · TAR1*
- Olegs Mihailovs · DAU0
- Peter Ljung · TAR3
- Andrey Kudryashov · DAU2
- Artur Mroczka · TAR1
- Jevgenijs Kostigovs · DAU0
- Ernest Koza · TAR3
- Vadim Tarasenko · DAU2
- Francis Gusts · DAU1*
- Przemysław Konieczny · TAR0
- Artur Mroczka · TAR3
- Vadim Tarasenko · DAU2
- Michał Gruchalski · TAR1
- Daniils Kolodinskis · DAU0
- Pontus Aspgren · DAU3
- Jevgenijs Kostigovs · DAU2*
- Peter Ljung · TAR1
- Mateusz Cierniak · TAR0
- Kim Nilsson · TAR3
- Andrey Kudryashov · DAU2
- Ernest Koza · TAR1
- Olegs Mihailovs · DAU0
- Vadim Tarasenko · DAU3
- Peter Ljung · TAR2
- Francis Gusts · DAU1
- Przemysław Konieczny · TAR0
- Ernest Koza · TAR3
- Kim Nilsson · TAR2*
- Pontus Aspgren · DAU1
- Jevgenijs Kostigovs · DAU0
- Michał Gruchalski · TAR3
- Andrey Kudryashov · DAU2
- Francis Gusts · DAU1*
- Artur Mroczka · TAR0
- Pontus Aspgren · DAU3
- Vadim Tarasenko · DAU2*
- Kim Nilsson · TAR1
- Artur Mroczka · TAR0
- Michał Gruchalski · TAR3
- Olegs Mihailovs · DAU2
- Mateusz Cierniak · TAR1
- Jevgenijs Kostigovs · DAU0
- Ernest Koza · TAR3
- Andrey Kudryashov · DAU2
- Peter Ljung · TAR1
- Pontus Aspgren · DAU0
- Vadim Tarasenko · DAU3
- Kim Nilsson · TAR2
- Peter Ljung · TAR1*
- Andrey Kudryashov · DAU0
- Andrey Kudryashov · DAU3
- Ernest Koza · TAR2
- Michał Gruchalski · TAR1
- Vadim Tarasenko · DAUD
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 29 → 24 °C
- Measured · Tarnow, 5 km away
- Wind
- 6 km/h E
- gusts up to 22 km/h
- Measured · Tarnow, 5 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.3 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 49 %
- Measured · Tarnow, 5 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| TAR | DAU | TAR | DAU | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead TAR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +6 | 90 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +4 | 83 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +8 | 95 % |
| 11 | +4 | 88 % |
| 12 | +6 | 92 % |
| 13 | +8 | 98 % |
| 14 | +8 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Koza | 5 | 7.5 | 12 | +4.5 |
| Michał Gruchalski | 5 | 8.6 | 11 | +2.4 |
| Kim Nilsson | 5 | 8.1 | 10 | +1.9 |
| Vadim Tarasenko | 6 | 10.2 | 12 | +1.8 |
| Andrey Kudryashov | 6 | 9.7 | 11 | +1.3 |
| Francis Gusts | 4 | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 |
| Pontus Aspgren | 5 | 8.2 | 8 | -0.2 |
| Przemysław Konieczny | 3 | 2.3 | 1 | -1.3 |
| Artur Mroczka | 4 | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 |
| Olegs Mihailovs | 3 | 3.6 | 2 | -1.6 |
| Jevgenijs Kostigovs | 4 | 3.8 | 2 | -1.8 |
| Daniils Kolodinskis | 2 | 1.8 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Mateusz Cierniak | 3 | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 |
| Peter Ljung | 5 | 10.4 | 8 | -2.4 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.