OST vs DAU
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, July 26, 2020 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Grzegorz Walasek2 3 2 3 313+1
- 10Tomasz Gapiński2 2 3 2 110+1
- 11Adrian Cyfer1 2 3 2 19+1
- 12Rafał Okoniewski1 1 0 13
- 13Nicolai Klindt3 3 2 1 312+1
- 14Kacper Grzelak0 0 00
- 15Sebastian Szostak1 1 02
- 1Kasts Puodzuks0 2 1 03
- 2Jevgenijs Kostigovs0 W 00
- 3Vadim Tarasenko3 3 3 3 3 015
- 4Pontus Aspgren3 D 1 2 28
- 5Andrey Kudryashov2 1 2 0 27
- 6Olegs Mihailovs3 1 1 1 06+1
- 7Francis Gusts2 02+1
Heat by heat
- Vadim Tarasenko · DAU3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Adrian Cyfer · OST1*
- Kasts Puodzuks · DAU0
- Olegs Mihailovs · DAU3
- Francis Gusts · DAU2*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Kacper Grzelak · OST0
- Nicolai Klindt · OST3
- Andrey Kudryashov · DAU2
- Rafał Okoniewski · OST1
- Jevgenijs Kostigovs · DAU0
- Pontus Aspgren · DAU3
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST2
- Olegs Mihailovs · DAU1
- Kacper Grzelak · OST0
- Vadim Tarasenko · DAU3
- Adrian Cyfer · OST2
- Rafał Okoniewski · OST1
- Pontus Aspgren · DAUD
- Nicolai Klindt · OST3
- Kasts Puodzuks · DAU2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST2*
- Andrey Kudryashov · DAU1
- Francis Gusts · DAU0
- Vadim Tarasenko · DAU3
- Nicolai Klindt · OST2
- Pontus Aspgren · DAU1
- Kacper Grzelak · OST0
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2*
- Kasts Puodzuks · DAU1
- Jevgenijs Kostigovs · DAU0
- Adrian Cyfer · OST3
- Andrey Kudryashov · DAU2
- Olegs Mihailovs · DAU1*
- Rafał Okoniewski · OST0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Pontus Aspgren · DAU2
- Rafał Okoniewski · OST1
- Kasts Puodzuks · DAU0
- Vadim Tarasenko · DAU3
- Adrian Cyfer · OST2
- Olegs Mihailovs · DAU1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Vadim Tarasenko · DAU3
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST2
- Nicolai Klindt · OST1*
- Andrey Kudryashov · DAU0
- Nicolai Klindt · OST3
- Andrey Kudryashov · DAU2
- Adrian Cyfer · OST1
- Olegs Mihailovs · DAU0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Pontus Aspgren · DAU2
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST1
- Vadim Tarasenko · DAU0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 28 → 22 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 16 km/h SW
- gusts up to 32 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0.8 mm
- Rain likely: a second model agrees
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 48 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 10 | 14 | −4 | +4 | |
| 5–7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| OST | DAU | OST | DAU | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | -4 | 37 % |
| 3 | -2 | 47 % |
| 4 | -4 | 38 % |
| 5 | -4 | 34 % |
| 6 | -2 | 48 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +4 | 86 % |
| 13 | +4 | 91 % |
| 14 | +6 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vadim Tarasenko | 6 | 8.8 | 15 | +6.2 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 5 | 9.3 | 13 | +3.7 |
| Adrian Cyfer | 5 | 6.7 | 9 | +2.3 |
| Nicolai Klindt | 5 | 9.8 | 12 | +2.2 |
| Tomasz Gapiński | 5 | 8.5 | 10 | +1.5 |
| Pontus Aspgren | 5 | 8.2 | 8 | -0.2 |
| Olegs Mihailovs | 5 | 6.3 | 6 | -0.3 |
| Francis Gusts | 2 | 2.6 | 2 | -0.6 |
| Andrey Kudryashov | 5 | 7.7 | 7 | -0.7 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 3 | 3.4 | 2 | -1.4 |
| Kasts Puodzuks | 4 | 4.9 | 3 | -1.9 |
| Jevgenijs Kostigovs | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Kacper Grzelak | 3 | 3.5 | 0 | -3.5 |
| Rafał Okoniewski | 4 | 7.3 | 3 | -4.3 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.