TOR vs TAR
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, September 26, 2020 · Motoarena im. Mariana Rosego, Toruń
Results
- 9Adrian Miedziński3 2 2 2 312+2
- 10Tobiasz Musielak3 3 1 2 211+3
- 11Chris Holder1 3 3 3 313
- 12Jack Holder3 2 2 310+2
- 13Viktor Kulakov2 3 3 3 112+1
- 14Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński3 1 04
- 15Kamil Marciniec1 0 12
- 1Kim Nilsson0 1 3 0 04+1
- 2Daniel Kaczmarek0 2 0 2 15
- 3Artur Mroczka2 1 2 0 27
- 4Ernest Koza2 0 1 1 04+1
- 5Peter Ljung1 W 1 13
- 6Przemysław Konieczny2 0 02
- 7Dawid Rempała0 1 01
Heat by heat
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR3
- Artur Mroczka · TAR2
- Chris Holder · TOR1
- Kim Nilsson · TAR0
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR3
- Przemysław Konieczny · TAR2
- Kamil Marciniec · TOR1
- Dawid Rempała · TAR0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Viktor Kulakov · TOR2*
- Peter Ljung · TAR1
- Daniel Kaczmarek · TAR0
- Tobiasz Musielak · TOR3
- Ernest Koza · TAR2
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR1
- Przemysław Konieczny · TAR0
- Chris Holder · TOR3
- Jack Holder · TOR2*
- Artur Mroczka · TAR1
- Ernest Koza · TAR0
- Viktor Kulakov · TOR3
- Daniel Kaczmarek · TAR2
- Kim Nilsson · TAR1*
- Kamil Marciniec · TOR0
- Tobiasz Musielak · TOR3
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR2*
- Dawid Rempała · TAR1
- Peter Ljung · TARW
- Viktor Kulakov · TOR3
- Artur Mroczka · TAR2
- Ernest Koza · TAR1*
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR0
- Kim Nilsson · TAR3
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR2
- Tobiasz Musielak · TOR1*
- Daniel Kaczmarek · TAR0
- Chris Holder · TOR3
- Jack Holder · TOR2*
- Peter Ljung · TAR1
- Przemysław Konieczny · TAR0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR2*
- Ernest Koza · TAR1
- Kim Nilsson · TAR0
- Chris Holder · TOR3
- Daniel Kaczmarek · TAR2
- Kamil Marciniec · TOR1
- Dawid Rempała · TAR0
- Viktor Kulakov · TOR3
- Tobiasz Musielak · TOR2*
- Peter Ljung · TAR1
- Artur Mroczka · TAR0
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR3
- Tobiasz Musielak · TOR2*
- Daniel Kaczmarek · TAR1
- Ernest Koza · TAR0
- Chris Holder · TOR3
- Artur Mroczka · TAR2
- Viktor Kulakov · TOR1
- Kim Nilsson · TAR0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Drizzle
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 19 → 15 °C
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Wind
- 10 km/h S
- gusts up to 22 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0.3 mm
- Rain likely: a second model agrees
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 11.4 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 81 %
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 17 | 7 | +10 | −10 | |
| 5–7 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 14 | 4 | +10 | −10 | |
| 14–15 | 9 | 3 | +6 | −6 | |
| TOR | TAR | TOR | TAR | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead TOR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +8 | 94 % |
| 4 | +10 | 98 % |
| 5 | +14 | 100 % |
| 6 | +14 | 99 % |
| 7 | +18 | 100 % |
| 8 | +18 | 100 % |
| 9 | +18 | 100 % |
| 10 | +22 | 100 % |
| 11 | +26 | 100 % |
| 12 | +28 | 100 % |
| 13 | +32 | 100 % |
| 14 | +36 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Miedziński | 5 | 7.4 | 12 | +4.6 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 10.5 | 13 | +2.5 |
| Artur Mroczka | 5 | 4.5 | 7 | +2.5 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 9.5 | 11 | +1.5 |
| Viktor Kulakov | 5 | 10.5 | 12 | +1.5 |
| Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński | 3 | 3.3 | 4 | +0.7 |
| Jack Holder | 4 | 9.4 | 10 | +0.6 |
| Daniel Kaczmarek | 5 | 5.0 | 5 | -0.0 |
| Kamil Marciniec | 3 | 2.1 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Przemysław Konieczny | 3 | 3.3 | 2 | -1.3 |
| Dawid Rempała | 3 | 2.9 | 1 | -1.9 |
| Ernest Koza | 5 | 6.5 | 4 | -2.5 |
| Peter Ljung | 4 | 5.7 | 3 | -2.7 |
| Kim Nilsson | 5 | 9.4 | 4 | -5.4 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.