TOR vs DAU
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, September 13, 2020 · Motoarena im. Mariana Rosego, Toruń
Results
- 9Tobiasz Musielak1 2 1 1 38+2
- 10Chris Holder3 3 3 3 214+1
- 11Jack Holder3 3 3 3 315
- 12Viktor Kulakov2 W 2 2 17+1
- 13Adrian MiedzińskiW 2 2 15
- 14Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński1 1 02+1
- 15Kamil Marciniec2 0 13
- 1Pontus Aspgren2 1 0 03
- 2Jevgenijs Kostigovs3 3 2 0 2 111
- 3Kasts Puodzuks0 11
- 4Vadim Tarasenko2 2 37
- 5Andrey Kudryashov1 01
- 6Olegs Mihailovs3 0 1 3 07
- 7Francis Gusts0 1 0 2 25
- 8Ricards Ansviesulis1 0 01
Heat by heat
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Pontus Aspgren · DAU2
- Tobiasz Musielak · TOR1
- Kasts Puodzuks · DAU0
- Olegs Mihailovs · DAU3
- Kamil Marciniec · TOR2
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR1*
- Francis Gusts · DAU0
- Jevgenijs Kostigovs · DAU3
- Viktor Kulakov · TOR2
- Andrey Kudryashov · DAU1
- Chris Holder · TOR3
- Vadim Tarasenko · DAU2
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR1
- Olegs Mihailovs · DAU0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Vadim Tarasenko · DAU2
- Ricards Ansviesulis · DAU1
- Jevgenijs Kostigovs · DAU3
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR2
- Pontus Aspgren · DAU1
- Kamil Marciniec · TOR0
- Chris Holder · TOR3
- Tobiasz Musielak · TOR2*
- Francis Gusts · DAU1
- Andrey Kudryashov · DAU0
- Vadim Tarasenko · DAU3
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR2
- Kasts Puodzuks · DAU1
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR0
- Chris Holder · TOR3
- Jevgenijs Kostigovs · DAU2
- Tobiasz Musielak · TOR1
- Pontus Aspgren · DAU0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Viktor Kulakov · TOR2*
- Olegs Mihailovs · DAU1
- Francis Gusts · DAU0
- Olegs Mihailovs · DAU3
- Viktor Kulakov · TOR2
- Tobiasz Musielak · TOR1*
- Pontus Aspgren · DAU0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Francis Gusts · DAU2
- Kamil Marciniec · TOR1
- Jevgenijs Kostigovs · DAU0
- Chris Holder · TOR3
- Jevgenijs Kostigovs · DAU2
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR1
- Ricards Ansviesulis · DAU0
- Tobiasz Musielak · TOR3
- Francis Gusts · DAU2
- Viktor Kulakov · TOR1
- Ricards Ansviesulis · DAU0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Chris Holder · TOR2*
- Jevgenijs Kostigovs · DAU1
- Olegs Mihailovs · DAU0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 20 → 21 °C
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Wind
- 12 km/h SW
- gusts up to 26 km/h
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 46 %
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | −2 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 9 | 3 | +6 | −6 | |
| TOR | DAU | TOR | DAU | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead TOR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | 0 | 64 % |
| 4 | +2 | 73 % |
| 5 | +2 | 69 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | +4 | 82 % |
| 8 | +2 | 71 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +8 | 95 % |
| 11 | +8 | 95 % |
| 12 | +10 | 98 % |
| 13 | +12 | 100 % |
| 14 | +14 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jevgenijs Kostigovs | 6 | 7.1 | 11 | +3.9 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 11.7 | 15 | +3.3 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 11.4 | 14 | +2.6 |
| Vadim Tarasenko | 3 | 5.0 | 7 | +2.0 |
| Olegs Mihailovs | 5 | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 |
| Kamil Marciniec | 3 | 1.6 | 3 | +1.4 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 8.6 | 8 | -0.6 |
| Francis Gusts | 5 | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 |
| Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński | 3 | 2.9 | 2 | -0.9 |
| Kasts Puodzuks | 2 | 2.0 | 1 | -1.0 |
| Ricards Ansviesulis | 3 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| Andrey Kudryashov | 2 | 2.7 | 1 | -1.7 |
| Pontus Aspgren | 4 | 5.3 | 3 | -2.3 |
| Adrian Miedziński | 4 | 7.4 | 5 | -2.4 |
| Viktor Kulakov | 5 | 10.7 | 7 | -3.7 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.