OST vs TOR
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, September 5, 2020 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Grzegorz Walasek0 1 2 25+1
- 10Tomasz Gapiński3 3 1 07
- 11Adrian Cyfer1 2 2 16+1
- 12Rafał Okoniewski0 00
- 13Nicolai Klindt2 0 3 3 W8
- 14Jakub Krawczyk0 1 01
- 15Sebastian Szostak2 2 04
- 16Jonas Jeppesen3 3 3 3 315
- 1Jack Holder2 1 3 06+1
- 2Chris Holder3 3 W 2 210
- 3Viktor Kulakov3 1 1 1 28+2
- 4Tobiasz Musielak2 3 2 1 19
- 5Adrian Miedziński1 2 1 2 06
- 6Kamil Marciniec1 0 01
- 7Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński3 0 14+1
Heat by heat
- Viktor Kulakov · TOR3
- Jack Holder · TOR2*
- Adrian Cyfer · OST1
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST0
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2
- Kamil Marciniec · TOR1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Chris Holder · TOR3
- Nicolai Klindt · OST2
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR1
- Rafał Okoniewski · OST0
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST3
- Tobiasz Musielak · TOR2
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1
- Kamil Marciniec · TOR0
- Tobiasz Musielak · TOR3
- Adrian Cyfer · OST2
- Viktor Kulakov · TOR1
- Rafał Okoniewski · OST0
- Chris Holder · TOR3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2
- Jack Holder · TOR1
- Nicolai Klindt · OST0
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST3
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR0
- Nicolai Klindt · OST3
- Tobiasz Musielak · TOR2
- Viktor Kulakov · TOR1*
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Jack Holder · TOR3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST1
- Jonas Jeppesen · OST3
- Adrian Cyfer · OST2*
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR1
- Kamil Marciniec · TOR0
- Jonas Jeppesen · OST3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2*
- Tobiasz Musielak · TOR1
- Jack Holder · TOR0
- Jonas Jeppesen · OST3
- Chris Holder · TOR2
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Nicolai Klindt · OST3
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR2
- Viktor Kulakov · TOR1*
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST0
- Jonas Jeppesen · OST3
- Viktor Kulakov · TOR2
- Adrian Cyfer · OST1
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR0
- Jonas Jeppesen · OST3
- Chris Holder · TOR2
- Tobiasz Musielak · TOR1
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Showers → Thunderstorm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 19 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 7 km/h S
- gusts up to 24 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 6.9 mm
- Rain likely: a second model agrees
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 2 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 95 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 9 | 15 | −6 | +6 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| OST | TOR | OST | TOR | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -4 | 45 % |
| 2 | -6 | 27 % |
| 3 | -8 | 13 % |
| 4 | -6 | 23 % |
| 5 | -8 | 18 % |
| 6 | -10 | 8 % |
| 7 | -8 | 13 % |
| 8 | -8 | 12 % |
| 9 | -8 | 12 % |
| 10 | -4 | 22 % |
| 11 | 0 | 48 % |
| 12 | 0 | 57 % |
| 13 | 0 | 56 % |
| 14 | +2 | 77 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Jeppesen | 5 | 7.7 | 15 | +7.3 |
| Adrian Cyfer | 4 | 4.0 | 6 | +2.0 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 3 | 2.5 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 7.8 | 9 | +1.2 |
| Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński | 3 | 3.0 | 4 | +1.0 |
| Tomasz Gapiński | 4 | 6.4 | 7 | +0.6 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 9.7 | 10 | +0.3 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 4 | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 |
| Kamil Marciniec | 3 | 1.8 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Nicolai Klindt | 5 | 9.1 | 8 | -1.1 |
| Rafał Okoniewski | 2 | 2.1 | 0 | -2.1 |
| Viktor Kulakov | 5 | 10.1 | 8 | -2.1 |
| Adrian Miedziński | 5 | 8.5 | 6 | -2.5 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 3 | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Jack Holder | 4 | 8.7 | 6 | -2.7 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.