Vargarna Speedway vs Dackarna Målilla
Elit Speedway / BAUHAUS-ligan · Tuesday, July 23, 2024 · Boardic Arena, Norrköping
Results
- 1Jakub Miśkowiak1 1 3 3 311
- 2Marcin Nowak3 3 0 17+1
- 3Chris Harris1 0 01+1
- 4Adam Ellis2 1 2 2 07
- 5Niels Kristian Iversen1 3 X 1 27
- 6Ludvig Lindgren1 3 04+1
- 7Daniel Henderson2 2 2 2 08+2
- 1Brady Kurtz2 2 2 3 211+1
- 2Timo Lahti0 3 1 1 16+2
- 3Rasmus Jensen3 3 3 2 314
- 4David Bellego0 00
- 5Andzejs Lebedevs2 1 1 0 15
- 6Filip Hjelmland0 1 01
- 7Ryan Douglas3 0 2 3 08+1
Heat by heat
- Marcin Nowak · VAR3
- Brady Kurtz · DAC2
- Jakub Miśkowiak · VAR1
- Timo Lahti · DAC0
- Ryan Douglas · DAC3
- Daniel Henderson · VAR2
- Ludvig Lindgren · VAR1*
- Filip Hjelmland · DAC0
- Rasmus Jensen · DAC3
- Adam Ellis · VAR2
- Chris Harris · VAR1*
- David Bellego · DAC0
- Ludvig Lindgren · VAR3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · DAC2
- Niels Kristian Iversen · VAR1
- Ryan Douglas · DAC0
- Marcin Nowak · VAR3
- Daniel Henderson · VAR2*
- Filip Hjelmland · DAC1
- David Bellego · DAC0
- Timo Lahti · DAC3
- Brady Kurtz · DAC2*
- Adam Ellis · VAR1
- Chris Harris · VAR0
- Rasmus Jensen · DAC3
- Ryan Douglas · DAC2*
- Jakub Miśkowiak · VAR1
- Marcin Nowak · VAR0
- Ryan Douglas · DAC3
- Adam Ellis · VAR2
- Andzejs Lebedevs · DAC1
- Chris Harris · VAR0
- Niels Kristian Iversen · VAR3
- Brady Kurtz · DAC2
- Timo Lahti · DAC1*
- Ludvig Lindgren · VAR0
- Jakub Miśkowiak · VAR3
- Daniel Henderson · VAR2*
- Andzejs Lebedevs · DAC1
- Filip Hjelmland · DAC0
- Rasmus Jensen · DAC3
- Adam Ellis · VAR2
- Timo Lahti · DAC1
- Niels Kristian Iversen · VARX
- Brady Kurtz · DAC3
- Daniel Henderson · VAR2
- Marcin Nowak · VAR1*
- Ryan Douglas · DAC0
- Jakub Miśkowiak · VAR3
- Rasmus Jensen · DAC2
- Niels Kristian Iversen · VAR1
- Andzejs Lebedevs · DAC0
- Rasmus Jensen · DAC3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · VAR2
- Andzejs Lebedevs · DAC1
- Daniel Henderson · VAR0
- Jakub Miśkowiak · VAR3
- Brady Kurtz · DAC2
- Timo Lahti · DAC1*
- Adam Ellis · VAR0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 21 → 17 °C
- Measured · Norrkoping Airport, 6 km away
- Wind
- 8 km/h W
- gusts up to 21 km/h
- Measured · Norrkoping Airport, 6 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 2.1 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 72 %
- Measured · Norrkoping Airport, 6 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| VAR | DAC | VAR | DAC | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead VAR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | 0 | 60 % |
| 8 | -2 | 48 % |
| 9 | -2 | 44 % |
| 10 | +2 | 70 % |
| 11 | 0 | 48 % |
| 12 | 0 | 57 % |
| 13 | +2 | 74 % |
| 14 | 0 | 56 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Henderson | 5 | 3.4 | 8 | +4.6 |
| Jakub Miśkowiak | 5 | 6.7 | 11 | +4.3 |
| Rasmus Jensen | 5 | 10.3 | 14 | +3.7 |
| Adam Ellis | 5 | 4.3 | 7 | +2.7 |
| Ludvig Lindgren | 3 | 1.4 | 4 | +2.6 |
| Marcin Nowak | 4 | 4.9 | 7 | +2.1 |
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 11.2 | 11 | -0.2 |
| Ryan Douglas | 5 | 9.0 | 8 | -1.0 |
| Niels Kristian Iversen | 5 | 8.3 | 7 | -1.3 |
| Timo Lahti | 5 | 7.9 | 6 | -1.9 |
| David Bellego | 2 | 3.0 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Filip Hjelmland | 3 | 4.2 | 1 | -3.2 |
| Chris Harris | 3 | 4.9 | 1 | -3.9 |
| Andzejs Lebedevs | 5 | 10.6 | 5 | -5.6 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.