Vargarna Speedway vs Eskilstuna Smederna
Elit Speedway / BAUHAUS-ligan · Tuesday, June 18, 2024 · Boardic Arena, Norrköping
Results
- 1Jakub Miśkowiak2 2 3 1 08+1
- 2Mateusz Tonder3 1 0 15
- 3Niels Kristian Iversen2 2 2 M FX 17
- 4Chris Harris1 0 01+1
- 5Daniel Henderson0 0 00
- 6Ludvig Lindgren0 2 3 F5
- 7Marcin Nowak2 3 1 2 210
- 2Frederik Jakobsen1 3 2 1 2 312+1
- 3Rohan Tungate0 3 1 3 2 211+2
- 4Michael Jepsen JensenR 2 3 1 39+1
- 5Kim Nilsson3 1 3 2 3 315
- 6Philip Hellström Bängs1 0 01
- 7Joel Andersson3 1 1 16
Heat by heat
- Mateusz Tonder · VAR3
- Jakub Miśkowiak · VAR2*
- Frederik Jakobsen · SME1
- Rohan Tungate · SME0
- Joel Andersson · SME3
- Marcin Nowak · VAR2
- Philip Hellström Bängs · SME1
- Ludvig Lindgren · VAR0
- Rohan Tungate · SME3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · VAR2
- Chris Harris · VAR1*
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · SMER
- Kim Nilsson · SME3
- Ludvig Lindgren · VAR2
- Joel Andersson · SME1
- Daniel Henderson · VAR0
- Marcin Nowak · VAR3
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · SME2
- Mateusz Tonder · VAR1
- Philip Hellström Bängs · SME0
- Frederik Jakobsen · SME3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · VAR2
- Kim Nilsson · SME1
- Chris Harris · VAR0
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · SME3
- Jakub Miśkowiak · VAR2
- Rohan Tungate · SME1
- Mateusz Tonder · VAR0
- Kim Nilsson · SME3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · VAR2
- Joel Andersson · SME1
- Chris Harris · VAR0
- Ludvig Lindgren · VAR3
- Frederik Jakobsen · SME2
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · SME1*
- Daniel Henderson · VAR0
- Jakub Miśkowiak · VAR3
- Kim Nilsson · SME2
- Marcin Nowak · VAR1
- Philip Hellström Bängs · SME0
- Rohan Tungate · SME3
- Marcin Nowak · VAR2
- Frederik Jakobsen · SME1
- Daniel Henderson · VAR0
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · SME3
- Frederik Jakobsen · SME2*
- Mateusz Tonder · VAR1
- Niels Kristian Iversen · VARM
- Kim Nilsson · SME3
- Rohan Tungate · SME2*
- Jakub Miśkowiak · VAR1
- Niels Kristian Iversen · VARFX
- Frederik Jakobsen · SME3
- Marcin Nowak · VAR2
- Joel Andersson · SME1
- Ludvig Lindgren · VARF
- Kim Nilsson · SME3
- Rohan Tungate · SME2*
- Niels Kristian Iversen · VAR1
- Jakub Miśkowiak · VAR0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 20 → 14 °C
- Measured · Norrkoping Airport, 6 km away
- Wind
- 21 km/h W
- gusts up to 41 km/h
- Measured · Norrkoping Airport, 6 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.9 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 58 %
- Measured · Norrkoping Airport, 6 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 4 | 14 | −10 | +10 | |
| 14–15 | 3 | 9 | −6 | +6 | |
| VAR | SME | VAR | SME | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead VAR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | +2 | 69 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | -2 | 46 % |
| 8 | -4 | 35 % |
| 9 | -4 | 28 % |
| 10 | -2 | 36 % |
| 11 | -4 | 18 % |
| 12 | -8 | 7 % |
| 13 | -12 | 0 % |
| 14 | -14 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim Nilsson | 6 | 10.8 | 15 | +4.2 |
| Marcin Nowak | 5 | 7.6 | 10 | +2.4 |
| Ludvig Lindgren | 4 | 3.1 | 5 | +1.9 |
| Joel Andersson | 4 | 4.1 | 6 | +1.9 |
| Mateusz Tonder | 4 | 3.3 | 5 | +1.7 |
| Jakub Miśkowiak | 5 | 6.8 | 8 | +1.2 |
| Rohan Tungate | 6 | 11.2 | 11 | -0.2 |
| Michael Jepsen Jensen | 5 | 9.5 | 9 | -0.5 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 6 | 13.1 | 12 | -1.1 |
| Niels Kristian Iversen | 6 | 9.0 | 7 | -2.0 |
| Daniel Henderson | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Chris Harris | 3 | 4.3 | 1 | -3.3 |
| Philip Hellström Bängs | 3 | 4.3 | 1 | -3.3 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.