Piraterna Speedway vs Lejonen
Elit Speedway / BAUHAUS-ligan · Tuesday, May 16, 2023 · Fornås Arena, Motala
Results
- 1Vaclav Milik3 2 2 2 312
- 2Paweł Przedpełski2 3 F 05+1
- 3Piotr Pawlicki3 2 3 3 112+1
- 4Przemysław Pawlicki2 3 2 3 313+2
- 5Oskar Fajfer3 2 0 1 28+2
- 6Ludvig Selvin0 1 01
- 7Jonathan Ejnemark3 0 14+1
- 1Oliver Berntzon1 0 1 02+1
- 2Jakub Miśkowiak0 1 1 1 03+1
- 3Bartosz Zmarzlik1 3 3 2 3 214
- 4Francis Gusts0 1 2 14+1
- 5Peter Ljung2 1 1 3 07
- 6Casper Henriksson1 2 03+1
- 7Daniel Henderson2 02
Heat by heat
- Vaclav Milik · PIR3
- Paweł Przedpełski · PIR2*
- Oliver Berntzon · LEJ1
- Jakub Miśkowiak · LEJ0
- Jonathan Ejnemark · PIR3
- Daniel Henderson · LEJ2
- Casper Henriksson · LEJ1*
- Ludvig Selvin · PIR0
- Piotr Pawlicki · PIR3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · PIR2*
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LEJ1
- Francis Gusts · LEJ0
- Oskar Fajfer · PIR3
- Peter Ljung · LEJ2
- Ludvig Selvin · PIR1
- Paweł Przedpełski · PIR3
- Casper Henriksson · LEJ2
- Francis Gusts · LEJ1*
- Jonathan Ejnemark · PIR0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · PIR3
- Piotr Pawlicki · PIR2*
- Jakub Miśkowiak · LEJ1
- Oliver Berntzon · LEJ0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LEJ3
- Vaclav Milik · PIR2
- Peter Ljung · LEJ1
- Paweł Przedpełski · PIRF
- Piotr Pawlicki · PIR3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · PIR2*
- Peter Ljung · LEJ1
- Daniel Henderson · LEJ0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LEJ3
- Oskar Fajfer · PIR2
- Jakub Miśkowiak · LEJ1
- Ludvig Selvin · PIR0
- Peter Ljung · LEJ3
- Vaclav Milik · PIR2
- Jonathan Ejnemark · PIR1*
- Casper Henriksson · LEJ0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · PIR3
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LEJ2
- Jakub Miśkowiak · LEJ1*
- Oskar Fajfer · PIR0
- Piotr Pawlicki · PIR3
- Francis Gusts · LEJ2
- Oliver Berntzon · LEJ1*
- Paweł Przedpełski · PIR0
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LEJ3
- Vaclav Milik · PIR2
- Oskar Fajfer · PIR1*
- Peter Ljung · LEJ0
- Vaclav Milik · PIR3
- Oskar Fajfer · PIR2*
- Francis Gusts · LEJ1
- Oliver Berntzon · LEJ0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · PIR3
- Bartosz Zmarzlik · LEJ2
- Piotr Pawlicki · PIR1
- Jakub Miśkowiak · LEJ0
Conditions
Weather at the track during the day (10:00–22:00 local time): no start time is known.
- Sky
- Drizzle
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 10–18 °C
- Measured · Linkoping Malmen Airport, 29 km away
- Wind
- 15 km/h W
- gusts up to 40 km/h
- Measured · Linkoping Malmen Airport, 29 km away
- Rain during the day
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.6 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 67 %
- Measured · Linkoping Malmen Airport, 29 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 17 | 7 | +10 | −10 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 9 | 3 | +6 | −6 | |
| PIR | LEJ | PIR | LEJ | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead PIR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +8 | 94 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +12 | 99 % |
| 7 | +10 | 97 % |
| 8 | +14 | 100 % |
| 9 | +12 | 99 % |
| 10 | +12 | 100 % |
| 11 | +12 | 100 % |
| 12 | +12 | 100 % |
| 13 | +12 | 100 % |
| 14 | +16 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 5 | 8.1 | 13 | +4.9 |
| Vaclav Milik | 5 | 8.7 | 12 | +3.3 |
| Piotr Pawlicki | 5 | 8.9 | 12 | +3.1 |
| Peter Ljung | 5 | 5.0 | 7 | +2.0 |
| Oskar Fajfer | 5 | 7.5 | 8 | +0.5 |
| Daniel Henderson | 2 | 1.7 | 2 | +0.3 |
| Jonathan Ejnemark | 3 | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 |
| Casper Henriksson | 3 | 3.0 | 3 | +0.0 |
| Francis Gusts | 4 | 4.8 | 4 | -0.8 |
| Paweł Przedpełski | 4 | 6.7 | 5 | -1.7 |
| Bartosz Zmarzlik | 6 | 15.8 | 14 | -1.8 |
| Ludvig Selvin | 3 | 3.8 | 1 | -2.8 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 4 | 5.4 | 2 | -3.4 |
| Jakub Miśkowiak | 5 | 6.7 | 3 | -3.7 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.