Vargarna Speedway vs Valsarna

Elit Speedway / BAUHAUS-ligan · Tuesday, May 17, 2011 · Boardic Arena, Norrköping

Results

VAR 49 : 40 VAL

VAR

1Adrian Miedziński2 3 2 0 18+1
2Adam Skornicki3 1 0 15+1
3Nicki Pedersen3 3 3 211
4Michał Szczepaniak1 1 1 36
5Krzysztof Kasprzak2 3 0 38
6Kim Nilsson2 0 3 2 1 311+2
7André Hertzberg0 FX0

VAL

1Grigorij Laguta1 2 FX 3 28+1
2Artem Laguta0 0 2 35
3Daniel Nermark2 2 F 1 27+1
4Tomasz Gapiński0 2 1 03+1
5David Watt1 0 01
6Ludvig Lindgren1 0 12+1
7Scott Nicholls3 3 2 3 2 114+1

Heat by heat

Heat 160.10 s5:1

Heat 261.40 s2:4

Heat 360.90 s4:2

Heat 458.70 s2:4

Heat 559.60 s4:2

Heat 658.70 s4:2

Heat 759.90 s3:3

Heat 859.20 s4:2

Heat 961.70 s5:0

Heat 1059.70 s3:3

Scott Nicholls · VAL3
Adrian Miedziński · VAR2
Kim Nilsson · VAR1*
David Watt · VAL0

Heat 113:3

Heat 1260.40 s3:3

Heat 1359.90 s3:3

Heat 1459.60 s3:3

Heat 1560.00 s

Conditions

Weather at the track during the day (10:00–22:00 local time): no start time is known.

Sky: Cloudy → Partly cloudy; Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
Temperature: 11–15 °C; Measured · Norrkoping Airport, 6 km away
Wind: 25 km/h SW; gusts up to 48 km/h; Measured · Norrkoping Airport, 6 km away
Rain during the day: 0.7 mm; Rain likely: a second model agrees; Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
Rain in the 24 hours before: 1.1 mm; Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
Humidity: 67 %; Measured · Norrkoping Airport, 6 km away

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

	Points		Balance
1–4	13	11	+2	−2
5–7	11	7	+4	−4
8–10	12	5	+7	−7
11–13	9	9	0	0
14–15	4	8	−4	+4
	VAR	VAL	VAR	VAL

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

Lead VAR

Heat	Lead	Home win chance
1	+4	85 %
2	+2	77 %
3	+4	82 %
4	+2	73 %
5	+4	83 %
6	+6	88 %
7	+6	90 %
8	+8	94 %
9	+13	100 %
10	+13	99 %
11	+13	100 %
12	+13	100 %
13	+13	100 %
14	+13	100 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

Rider	heats	Expected	Scored	±
Scott Nicholls	6	8.6	14	+5.4
Kim Nilsson	6	7.6	11	+3.4
Michał Szczepaniak	4	3.3	6	+2.7
Nicki Pedersen	4	8.7	11	+2.3
Adam Skornicki	4	3.7	5	+1.3
Krzysztof Kasprzak	4	8.1	8	-0.1
Artem Laguta	4	5.5	5	-0.5
Daniel Nermark	5	8.2	7	-1.2
Ludvig Lindgren	3	3.7	2	-1.7
Grigorij Laguta	5	9.8	8	-1.8
Adrian Miedziński	5	10.0	8	-2.0
André Hertzberg	2	2.9	0	-2.9
David Watt	3	3.9	1	-2.9
Tomasz Gapiński	4	6.1	3	-3.1

Track & gates

Heat times

Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.

slower 61.7058.70 faster

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside 1 + 2 38.0:18.3 outside 3 + 4

Trend ▶ −3.15 towards the outside

Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Full results at the source